With Apologies To Michael Buffer…
June 17, 2009
Let’s get ready to…oh, it’s already started.
I think it is abundantly clear that Iran just had themselves a little show election last weekend, and the president of the Members Only fan club gets to stay president of Iran too. Clearly, the idea of even a little reform scared the mullahs over there into rigging this thing. I guess I can’t blame them, I mean, you let that whole reform thing build a little, and soon enough there’d be another revolution. In the linked video, it’s clear that Iran is starting to boil over, that thirty years of inequality, injustice, beatings, maltreatment of women, religious police, et al., has built up and the people are saying, “Enough!” Further proof of that is in today’s Times article, which shows that Twitter may actually be fighting for democracy. Who knew?
This may be good for us and for the world. First of all, there is a chance that they will force real change in Iran. News reports have constantly pointed out that these are the largest demonstrations in Iran since the 1979 revolution, and the demonstrators out for Moussavi have been ten times larger than those for Ahmadinejad. Despite the shutdown of text messaging, the banning of foreign reporters from the streets, the shootings and arrests of protestors and moderate politicians, the people have not backed down. That takes real courage, and we should be proud of them. Furthermore, unlike President Bush in 1989, who kept his reaction to the crushing of Tianamen Square protests muted, we should, carefully of course, support these people in any way we can.
Obviously, there is a careful balance we have to strike here. Sadly, the demonstrators may lose in the end. Ahmadinejad controls the Revolutionary Guards a lot more than the clerics like to admit, not to mention the intelligence services and the militias. As a former Guards officer, they are far more loyal to one of their own than they are the clerics. Furthermore, Ayatollah Khameini is rather weak, by and large, as he’s always had to make alliances to keep his position, because he was promoted after Ayatollah Khomeini’s (one letter makes ALL the difference) death in 1989 from well down the list of senior clerics. In fact, an op-ed in today’s Times claims Iran is more military dicatorship these days than clerical state.
Despite this, however, if arrests and shootings and Internet shutdowns do not stop this tide of protest, then Iran has a problem. Once the myth of the all-powerful state is shattered, it can’t be regained. China teetered on that edge in 1989, and were lucky that other world events kept their repressive actions from being a bigger matter. Iran does not have that luxury, and furthermore does not have the military might of China, to use the same repressive measures to the same effect. Ask the shah how well HIS repression worked in 1979 in similar circumstances.
Secondly, regardless of how it turns out, Iran may feel compelled to reach an agreement on the nuclear weapons issue. If matters drag out, we would do well to turn up the heat on Iran with sanctions. Their economy is already a mess, and that was one of Ahmadinejad’s promises in 2005, fixing the economy. Under his rule, it has become worse, and if we hit that pressure point right as an international community, that might be the final straw for the Iranian people to toss out this clerical/militaristic dictatorship and establish a more democratic government.
In short, we don’t need to attack Iran and neither does Israel. Their people, with a little proper support aimed properly, could acheive what we want them to.
Posted in Uncategorized
June 18th, 2009 at 6:27 am
I wonder if the Iranians are really going to see any immediate benefit to stopping their nuclear weapons program. It’s probably popular domestically, given that Israel has nukes and they’re surrounded by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus our other bases in the middle east. Yes, it would get them off the hook for sanctions, but that’s not really what’s driving the unrest now.
As for stealing the election, what a bunch of amateurs. A few community activists from ACORN’s election outcome assurance department could have shown the Iranians how it’s supposed to be done. They didn’t even have dead people voting.
regards,